Altman, like every other startup CEO, is first and foremost (and quite often only) a salesman. That alone should tell you how to take his predictions. Like any software salesman, he guarantees the product can do exactly what you say you need. Then he gets his commission and walks away, leaving Customer Support and maintenance releases to clean up the mess. I worked in Silicon Valley for 32 years and watched that particular con up close many times. And yeah, Moore's Law. I worked at a CAE company. Moore's Law is running into a few problems like the speed of light (the clock speeds are getting up there, and those electrons have to obey the law) and the size of molecules (they're using something called 3-D design, where the chip layout looks like rows of skyscrapers, to deal with this). It was a good run, but it turns out, Reality, like Nature, bats last. Moore's Law in its original scope is dead as a doornail. And as you point out, as a metaphor it was always a con.
And good luck slowing down the hype train. That list of recommendations from Roose?
* Legislators up to speed
* Transparent software companies
* Clear-eyed, sober journalists
all good and necessary, and a complete reversal of many decades of trends in every area, let alone AI, born and bred on hype. The whole SV/VC culture is still running on the fumes of its glory days, propped up only by the sheer amount of money sloshing around the top 1% with nowhere to go. A perfect culture for hustlers promising the next PC, the next cell phone, the next killer app. It was always thus, it was just a handful of incredibly lucky and ruthless white guys caught the perfect wave in a small window of time. Now, its like moving to Hollywood in 1965 to be a star.
As a Master Carpenter with over 40 yrs experience, I'm still waiting for the robots to arrive. It turns out that there isn't any robot that can do much constructing a house. Basically we need robots like C3PO in Star Wars, that is a mechanical humanoid. We're no where close to that from what I've read. I heard that they tried to make a brick-laying machine but it didn't work. So Altman is flat out wrong about AI doing much with housing. I think I better retire.
Altman, like every other startup CEO, is first and foremost (and quite often only) a salesman. That alone should tell you how to take his predictions. Like any software salesman, he guarantees the product can do exactly what you say you need. Then he gets his commission and walks away, leaving Customer Support and maintenance releases to clean up the mess. I worked in Silicon Valley for 32 years and watched that particular con up close many times. And yeah, Moore's Law. I worked at a CAE company. Moore's Law is running into a few problems like the speed of light (the clock speeds are getting up there, and those electrons have to obey the law) and the size of molecules (they're using something called 3-D design, where the chip layout looks like rows of skyscrapers, to deal with this). It was a good run, but it turns out, Reality, like Nature, bats last. Moore's Law in its original scope is dead as a doornail. And as you point out, as a metaphor it was always a con.
And good luck slowing down the hype train. That list of recommendations from Roose?
* Legislators up to speed
* Transparent software companies
* Clear-eyed, sober journalists
all good and necessary, and a complete reversal of many decades of trends in every area, let alone AI, born and bred on hype. The whole SV/VC culture is still running on the fumes of its glory days, propped up only by the sheer amount of money sloshing around the top 1% with nowhere to go. A perfect culture for hustlers promising the next PC, the next cell phone, the next killer app. It was always thus, it was just a handful of incredibly lucky and ruthless white guys caught the perfect wave in a small window of time. Now, its like moving to Hollywood in 1965 to be a star.
As a Master Carpenter with over 40 yrs experience, I'm still waiting for the robots to arrive. It turns out that there isn't any robot that can do much constructing a house. Basically we need robots like C3PO in Star Wars, that is a mechanical humanoid. We're no where close to that from what I've read. I heard that they tried to make a brick-laying machine but it didn't work. So Altman is flat out wrong about AI doing much with housing. I think I better retire.
Rush McAllister