The reason(s) I remain pretty bullish despite all that:
-Trump is just *not* getting above 46%, which is something like his absolute ceiling in any election or poll. Trump is where Trump is and has been for almost a decade now.
-ticket-splitting in Federal races in a negatively polarized political environment is not something that, Maine excepted, really happens. I believe the polls - I don't think they're predictive, because those relatively popular Senate candidates haven't yet also been lending their support to Biden as consistently, and also -
-there's my continuing strong belief that unpopularity is a structural feature of the modern Presidency. "The President" is, by definition, unpopular - opposed by ~90-95% of the opposition, and consistently disappointing to 10-25% of their own party. This has been true basically since Bush II with the exogenous 9/11 polling bump (and a much lesser one for the Iraq invasion - it went inexorably down after both bumps), along with a very very brief 60+% moment for Obama in 2009 excepted. It is certainly *possible* that we have turned a corner where this structural factor starts to turn Presidential incumbency into a liability rather than an asset (sample size n=1, so far) but I am still skeptical and more confident that Presidential approval is less predictive of re-election chances than it used to be (n=2).
But in general: yes, this is the work. No time for loser talk.
It's not the main focus of your newsletter, but I think judging Biden to have been a good President is not that far from the people who say "but after all, democracy is not at risk". Yes, in conventional terms, he's been just fine (e.g., pushing legislation, moving policy in a productive incremental way, rising to the occasion with Ukraine), which is both a reflection of his own political skills and the skilled technocrats (mostly) that he appointed. But it's not the right approach to the office in the historical circumstances of his election--he has been the equivalent of a pretty decent antebellum President who didn't really see the Civil War coming and figured that Missouri and Kansas would work itself out. And one of the major indicators of that has been his one really terrible appointment: Merrick Garland at Justice, who has thoroughly whiffed on every critical at-bat he's faced since Day 1. Biden's deepest instincts--and Garland's approach--told Biden that American politics would re-normalize if only he acted normally, and that was just profoundly, deeply incorrect, and a sign both of his own debility AND a sign that the leadership of his party simply doesn't understand the environment they're operating in. He's been fine in times that called for something other than fine. And that alone should have been a reason for the party to move aggressively towards someone else right after the good news came in after November 2022.
It was never going to be easy to win against Trump. The reluctance to accept Biden as our candidate is partially rooted in the media flood of negative coverage of that "debate" disaster, but a lot of it is based on Jon Lovitz's Dukakis impression on SNL: "I can't believe I'm losing to this guy". There's a strong desire to not believe some 40%+ of Americans who bother to vote really want Trump, but they really do. You know better than I do ANYONE replacing Biden would be a total crap shoot. In the end, I trust Biden to do the right thing as he sees it, and I trust his family to whisper in his ear if they need to. I think there was some denial in the campaign, they were running a schedule that a 76 year old who wasn't President handled just fine, but an 82 year old who is President is a horse of a different color. They get that now, so he will be closely watched and managed from hear on out. We'll see what the convention bounce looks like after Trump delivers his blood and soil reconciliation speech.
I don't think the pollsters know what they're doing. They seem to underestimate just how far to the left and angry and active most people under the age of 40 is. They blithely assume that young people don't vote, and in 2016 they were right.
But after Trump got elected voting by young people literally doubled in some states. A large segment of apathetic citizens who never voted before suddenly realized that their vote does matter and count for something. Too late to save the Supreme Court, but better late than never.
And Trump literally killed off a lot of his supporters with his botched handling of COVID, and many of those he didn't kill he flipped to non-voter or Democrat. Mass migrations of people across different states, especially out of California and Illinois, have also bent and distorted things.
The Trump supporters are loud and active, and often very well funded, and a clear and present danger to democracy, But young people are justifiably enraged at the mess that's been left to them by the Boomer's Vote Yourself Rich schemes of the 80's and on.
This is so spot on as I read it on July 23rd. I love President Biden and his rescue of our nation from the horrible end of trumps reign and for all the legislation passed early in his term when Congress was actually working. I couldn’t listen to the news in their relentless messaging that Biden was too old to complete a sentence (while Trump falls asleep at his trials and rambles about sharks and Hannibal Lector and can only speak in repetitive campaign slogans). But I am so excited to have the dems “in array” for a change and energized with tens of millions in small donor donations, volunteer mobilization, and incredible momentum going into the Convention. I slept well last night.
I think President Kamala Harris has a nice ring to it. I’m looking forward to her competent and experienced choice of VP knowing she wants a partner and not a sycophant.
I know I'm late to the party but just thought I'd let you know the link for your tech policy press article sends people to the Reuters article referenced before it. (Nice reading this after Biden was coconut pilled).
Biden needs one to keep his mouth where his mind is. It seems to be his thinking speed actually *outruns* his talking speed (he never was strong at talking of the cuff) and that leads to breakdown.
Trump needs a teleprompter to remain coherent, and at times to fake being civilised. Coherence is not very important in most voter's minds. Nor is being civilised. He thus does better without one.
A word on the polls: there's always gonna be some amount of bias in them. Response rates are pitiful, and the small subpopulation of people willing to respond will not be fully representative of the broader population of voters. Pollsters know this, and they use statistical adjustments to try and remove this nonresponse bias.
But the adjustments are necessarily imperfect. Worse still, the manner in which that small subpopulation of willing respondents differs from everyone else changes over time, and so a statistical "correction" that worked last time might not work this time.
Andrew Gelman has published work on this "differential nonresponse" problem that suggests voter enthusiasm plays a big role in willingness to respond to polls (this can account for the "convention boost" - it makes supporters more likely to respond). In 2016, Clinton supporters were very confident of victory. In 2020, Biden supporters were reasonably confident of victory. In 2024, Biden supporters are despondent and Trump supporters are more confident than ever.
So there's at least a good theoretical reason to suspect the polls today are biased, to some degree, in Trump's favor. And I think there's an empirical reason too: the primary polls greatly overestimated Trump's margins of victory, and underestimated Biden's.
(FWIW, I'm furious with Biden and his family and his "inner circle" for not stepping aside. I consider it selfish and egotistical and reckless and insulting. But I'm still guessing things aren't quite as bad as the polls say)
I personally think that Harris would be a strong candidate and could really excite people if she were to step into it. Probably not going to happen, so I’ll just have to accept the old guy. I’m not even American, so I can’t even vote, but this really affects all of us.
Alas, I think the trepidation and weak tea that the Dem's have been sputtering in the aftermath of the attempted assassination on Saturday, coupled with the imagery of defiant Trump is going to seal the deal.
I also agree that it is probably a bad thing that Biden hasn't taken the bait and passed the torch to Harris, but who are we kidding, it would a) have to be her, and b) the racism and misogyny in the general population would make her even more toast than JRB.
I am going to stuff my head into my oven and end it all, this is too damn depressing.
If Biden wins, all of this gnashing of teeth will have been such a waste of time. No deal is sealed. Polling is inaccurate, and it’s still way too early anyway. The campaign hasn’t even started in earnest.
I worked in Silicon Valley for 30+ years, and of course they think Trump will do a better job. For them. The Project 2025 tax plan calls for tax cuts for the upper class and an increase in the $60K range. That and the endorsement by icons like Musk and Andreesen would do it. Hate from the left? In comments? Thats normal.
We'll see. My hunch is that (a) there will be very little movement in the mass public polls and (b) Trump is going to have at least one massive own-goal error in the next 111 days that resets peoples' thinking at least a bit.
In 2010 Scott Brown, in deep blue Mass.., came from 37% back in Oct to win by 7% in Jan of 2010-a 44% TURNAROUND. The only candidate to positively move in the polls in the next 100 days will be Trump. Biden was being abandoned by the Hollywood crowd and members of his own party less than a week ago and will still meet tough internal opposition at the DNC if his polls tank any further.. ( an announced win by Biden at the convention with a statesmanlike withdrawal , opening a Harris,Newsome ,Pritzker scrum is the likely maneuver}.. But to believe that Biden can overcome the disastrous effects of a nearly successful internal revolt due to his now agreed upon ( by the majority of respondents} clear mental disability to handle the office is not going to disappear. The Trump bump from what appears to be God's intervention will expand his base, particularly in the swing states evangelical populations. Another debate debacle by Biden will seal this years election result for Trump. Meanwhile Biden's Secret Service failure last Saturday puts Majorkis and Garland in the cross-hairs, $4 a dozen eggs destroys any Biden claims of mastery of the economy, two unpopular wars with a likely Ukraine capitulation and an increased aggressive posture by the latest axis of enemies destroys any semblance of a claim of competency by Biden's failed State Dept insures a Trump Presidency short of another Black Swan event. and
Dave- maligning the head of the Teamsters doesn't negate O'Briens pull; ignoring legacy media's abandonment of Biden last week doesn't change the now solidified impression that Biden is failing mentally, and the perceived notion that God is on Trump's side doesn't disappear with the plaintive bleating of the Dems for a more collegial campaign atmosphere.
PISSING into the wind with half-baked notions of "campaigning" out of the cratering polls by a nouveau substacker doesn't change the fact that without a 2nd Black Swan Event in his favor Biden is done.
It is fairly amazing how the polls for this race seem to be so consistent over such a long period of time. I remember the “convention bounces” of earlier eras causing double digit swings in national popular vote polls. That is just not happening these days.
I go back and forth - but I think it may be time to ride or die with Biden, that him trailing in national and swing state polls for so long means he is going to lose, and we should do everything possible to get the House or keep the Senate, either or both of which are actually possible.
It is fairly amazing how the polls for this race seem to be so consistent over such a long period of time. I remember the “convention bounces” of earlier eras causing double digit swings in national popular vote polls. That is just not happening these days.
I go back and forth - but I think it may be time to ride or die with Biden, that him trailing in national and swing state polls for so long means he is going to lose, and we should do everything possible to get the House or keep the Senate, either or both of which are actually possible.
We shall see. The "convention bounce" has been a truism for my 71 years. A lack of one will be telling, though I would bet on a small one. The Republican message is aimed straight at their base and no one else, because they've convinced themselves their base is a majority. The polls are accurate, but you need to remember what they're accure about: not what will happen, but about how people feel right now, months before the election, and I'd argue a majority of them are not paying any attention to the circus right now. The convention bounce is an artifact of them watching it on tv. Things change, and they will. Start worrying and looking for a suprise in Oct, the traditional opening day of ratfucking elections.
It is fairly amazing how the polls for this race seem to be so consistent over such a long period of time. I remember the “convention bounces” of earlier eras causing double digit swings in national popular vote polls. That is just not happening these days.
I go back and forth - but I think it may be time to ride or die with Biden, that him trailing in national and swing state polls for so long means he is going to lose, and we should do everything possible to get the House or keep the Senate, either or both of which are actually possible.
The reason(s) I remain pretty bullish despite all that:
-Trump is just *not* getting above 46%, which is something like his absolute ceiling in any election or poll. Trump is where Trump is and has been for almost a decade now.
-ticket-splitting in Federal races in a negatively polarized political environment is not something that, Maine excepted, really happens. I believe the polls - I don't think they're predictive, because those relatively popular Senate candidates haven't yet also been lending their support to Biden as consistently, and also -
-there's my continuing strong belief that unpopularity is a structural feature of the modern Presidency. "The President" is, by definition, unpopular - opposed by ~90-95% of the opposition, and consistently disappointing to 10-25% of their own party. This has been true basically since Bush II with the exogenous 9/11 polling bump (and a much lesser one for the Iraq invasion - it went inexorably down after both bumps), along with a very very brief 60+% moment for Obama in 2009 excepted. It is certainly *possible* that we have turned a corner where this structural factor starts to turn Presidential incumbency into a liability rather than an asset (sample size n=1, so far) but I am still skeptical and more confident that Presidential approval is less predictive of re-election chances than it used to be (n=2).
But in general: yes, this is the work. No time for loser talk.
It's not the main focus of your newsletter, but I think judging Biden to have been a good President is not that far from the people who say "but after all, democracy is not at risk". Yes, in conventional terms, he's been just fine (e.g., pushing legislation, moving policy in a productive incremental way, rising to the occasion with Ukraine), which is both a reflection of his own political skills and the skilled technocrats (mostly) that he appointed. But it's not the right approach to the office in the historical circumstances of his election--he has been the equivalent of a pretty decent antebellum President who didn't really see the Civil War coming and figured that Missouri and Kansas would work itself out. And one of the major indicators of that has been his one really terrible appointment: Merrick Garland at Justice, who has thoroughly whiffed on every critical at-bat he's faced since Day 1. Biden's deepest instincts--and Garland's approach--told Biden that American politics would re-normalize if only he acted normally, and that was just profoundly, deeply incorrect, and a sign both of his own debility AND a sign that the leadership of his party simply doesn't understand the environment they're operating in. He's been fine in times that called for something other than fine. And that alone should have been a reason for the party to move aggressively towards someone else right after the good news came in after November 2022.
It was never going to be easy to win against Trump. The reluctance to accept Biden as our candidate is partially rooted in the media flood of negative coverage of that "debate" disaster, but a lot of it is based on Jon Lovitz's Dukakis impression on SNL: "I can't believe I'm losing to this guy". There's a strong desire to not believe some 40%+ of Americans who bother to vote really want Trump, but they really do. You know better than I do ANYONE replacing Biden would be a total crap shoot. In the end, I trust Biden to do the right thing as he sees it, and I trust his family to whisper in his ear if they need to. I think there was some denial in the campaign, they were running a schedule that a 76 year old who wasn't President handled just fine, but an 82 year old who is President is a horse of a different color. They get that now, so he will be closely watched and managed from hear on out. We'll see what the convention bounce looks like after Trump delivers his blood and soil reconciliation speech.
I don't think the pollsters know what they're doing. They seem to underestimate just how far to the left and angry and active most people under the age of 40 is. They blithely assume that young people don't vote, and in 2016 they were right.
But after Trump got elected voting by young people literally doubled in some states. A large segment of apathetic citizens who never voted before suddenly realized that their vote does matter and count for something. Too late to save the Supreme Court, but better late than never.
And Trump literally killed off a lot of his supporters with his botched handling of COVID, and many of those he didn't kill he flipped to non-voter or Democrat. Mass migrations of people across different states, especially out of California and Illinois, have also bent and distorted things.
The Trump supporters are loud and active, and often very well funded, and a clear and present danger to democracy, But young people are justifiably enraged at the mess that's been left to them by the Boomer's Vote Yourself Rich schemes of the 80's and on.
This is so spot on as I read it on July 23rd. I love President Biden and his rescue of our nation from the horrible end of trumps reign and for all the legislation passed early in his term when Congress was actually working. I couldn’t listen to the news in their relentless messaging that Biden was too old to complete a sentence (while Trump falls asleep at his trials and rambles about sharks and Hannibal Lector and can only speak in repetitive campaign slogans). But I am so excited to have the dems “in array” for a change and energized with tens of millions in small donor donations, volunteer mobilization, and incredible momentum going into the Convention. I slept well last night.
I think President Kamala Harris has a nice ring to it. I’m looking forward to her competent and experienced choice of VP knowing she wants a partner and not a sycophant.
I know I'm late to the party but just thought I'd let you know the link for your tech policy press article sends people to the Reuters article referenced before it. (Nice reading this after Biden was coconut pilled).
Oh good catch, thanks.
Spoken like a campaigner.
A teleprompter is a crutch.
Biden needs one to keep his mouth where his mind is. It seems to be his thinking speed actually *outruns* his talking speed (he never was strong at talking of the cuff) and that leads to breakdown.
Trump needs a teleprompter to remain coherent, and at times to fake being civilised. Coherence is not very important in most voter's minds. Nor is being civilised. He thus does better without one.
A word on the polls: there's always gonna be some amount of bias in them. Response rates are pitiful, and the small subpopulation of people willing to respond will not be fully representative of the broader population of voters. Pollsters know this, and they use statistical adjustments to try and remove this nonresponse bias.
But the adjustments are necessarily imperfect. Worse still, the manner in which that small subpopulation of willing respondents differs from everyone else changes over time, and so a statistical "correction" that worked last time might not work this time.
Andrew Gelman has published work on this "differential nonresponse" problem that suggests voter enthusiasm plays a big role in willingness to respond to polls (this can account for the "convention boost" - it makes supporters more likely to respond). In 2016, Clinton supporters were very confident of victory. In 2020, Biden supporters were reasonably confident of victory. In 2024, Biden supporters are despondent and Trump supporters are more confident than ever.
So there's at least a good theoretical reason to suspect the polls today are biased, to some degree, in Trump's favor. And I think there's an empirical reason too: the primary polls greatly overestimated Trump's margins of victory, and underestimated Biden's.
(FWIW, I'm furious with Biden and his family and his "inner circle" for not stepping aside. I consider it selfish and egotistical and reckless and insulting. But I'm still guessing things aren't quite as bad as the polls say)
I personally think that Harris would be a strong candidate and could really excite people if she were to step into it. Probably not going to happen, so I’ll just have to accept the old guy. I’m not even American, so I can’t even vote, but this really affects all of us.
you're a scary guy, Dave. just a bit on the hysterical side. At least y0u didn't call Trump, Adolf
Man this is dark Dave.
Alas, I think the trepidation and weak tea that the Dem's have been sputtering in the aftermath of the attempted assassination on Saturday, coupled with the imagery of defiant Trump is going to seal the deal.
I also agree that it is probably a bad thing that Biden hasn't taken the bait and passed the torch to Harris, but who are we kidding, it would a) have to be her, and b) the racism and misogyny in the general population would make her even more toast than JRB.
I am going to stuff my head into my oven and end it all, this is too damn depressing.
If Biden wins, all of this gnashing of teeth will have been such a waste of time. No deal is sealed. Polling is inaccurate, and it’s still way too early anyway. The campaign hasn’t even started in earnest.
if
As Dave points out, believing the polling to be inaccurate is folly.
But 111 days is a loooong time. This cake is unbaked!
Don't (pre-)mourn. Organize!
I work in tech, in silicon valley, and the general perception is that Trump exudes confidence, strength, and that ““Fuck Yeah”” attitude.
If I had to guess, of my co-workers, at least 70% are thinking Trump will do a better job.
This is up from 50-50 before the debacle of the debate.
Frankly, I am getting a lot of hate from the left, it is beginning to feel like Twitter was after Musk bought it and before I bailed.
I am thoroughly dispirited.
I worked in Silicon Valley for 30+ years, and of course they think Trump will do a better job. For them. The Project 2025 tax plan calls for tax cuts for the upper class and an increase in the $60K range. That and the endorsement by icons like Musk and Andreesen would do it. Hate from the left? In comments? Thats normal.
I think the polls are gonna shift, a LOT.
We'll see. My hunch is that (a) there will be very little movement in the mass public polls and (b) Trump is going to have at least one massive own-goal error in the next 111 days that resets peoples' thinking at least a bit.
In 2010 Scott Brown, in deep blue Mass.., came from 37% back in Oct to win by 7% in Jan of 2010-a 44% TURNAROUND. The only candidate to positively move in the polls in the next 100 days will be Trump. Biden was being abandoned by the Hollywood crowd and members of his own party less than a week ago and will still meet tough internal opposition at the DNC if his polls tank any further.. ( an announced win by Biden at the convention with a statesmanlike withdrawal , opening a Harris,Newsome ,Pritzker scrum is the likely maneuver}.. But to believe that Biden can overcome the disastrous effects of a nearly successful internal revolt due to his now agreed upon ( by the majority of respondents} clear mental disability to handle the office is not going to disappear. The Trump bump from what appears to be God's intervention will expand his base, particularly in the swing states evangelical populations. Another debate debacle by Biden will seal this years election result for Trump. Meanwhile Biden's Secret Service failure last Saturday puts Majorkis and Garland in the cross-hairs, $4 a dozen eggs destroys any Biden claims of mastery of the economy, two unpopular wars with a likely Ukraine capitulation and an increased aggressive posture by the latest axis of enemies destroys any semblance of a claim of competency by Biden's failed State Dept insures a Trump Presidency short of another Black Swan event. and
Dave- maligning the head of the Teamsters doesn't negate O'Briens pull; ignoring legacy media's abandonment of Biden last week doesn't change the now solidified impression that Biden is failing mentally, and the perceived notion that God is on Trump's side doesn't disappear with the plaintive bleating of the Dems for a more collegial campaign atmosphere.
PISSING into the wind with half-baked notions of "campaigning" out of the cratering polls by a nouveau substacker doesn't change the fact that without a 2nd Black Swan Event in his favor Biden is done.
I bought a dozen eggs for $2.75 yesterday. Why are you buying such expensive eggs, man?
Why is your rebuttal so weak?
Why are your rebuttals of the thin gruel variety?
I'm now imagining all the Democrats as Roman Roy. "I pre-grieved, I'm good."
It is fairly amazing how the polls for this race seem to be so consistent over such a long period of time. I remember the “convention bounces” of earlier eras causing double digit swings in national popular vote polls. That is just not happening these days.
I go back and forth - but I think it may be time to ride or die with Biden, that him trailing in national and swing state polls for so long means he is going to lose, and we should do everything possible to get the House or keep the Senate, either or both of which are actually possible.
It is fairly amazing how the polls for this race seem to be so consistent over such a long period of time. I remember the “convention bounces” of earlier eras causing double digit swings in national popular vote polls. That is just not happening these days.
I go back and forth - but I think it may be time to ride or die with Biden, that him trailing in national and swing state polls for so long means he is going to lose, and we should do everything possible to get the House or keep the Senate, either or both of which are actually possible.
We shall see. The "convention bounce" has been a truism for my 71 years. A lack of one will be telling, though I would bet on a small one. The Republican message is aimed straight at their base and no one else, because they've convinced themselves their base is a majority. The polls are accurate, but you need to remember what they're accure about: not what will happen, but about how people feel right now, months before the election, and I'd argue a majority of them are not paying any attention to the circus right now. The convention bounce is an artifact of them watching it on tv. Things change, and they will. Start worrying and looking for a suprise in Oct, the traditional opening day of ratfucking elections.
It is fairly amazing how the polls for this race seem to be so consistent over such a long period of time. I remember the “convention bounces” of earlier eras causing double digit swings in national popular vote polls. That is just not happening these days.
I go back and forth - but I think it may be time to ride or die with Biden, that him trailing in national and swing state polls for so long means he is going to lose, and we should do everything possible to get the House or keep the Senate, either or both of which are actually possible.