Right on. Walz seems to be the first candidate for P or VP who knows how to talk to real people, since Bill Clinton.
Walz doesn't want to talk about how Trump wants to kill the ACA. He says that Trump wants to get rid of protections for people with pre-existing conditions. Trump wants to bring back lifetime caps on health insurance.
I hope that he knows not to talk about "reproductive freedom" but instead about contraception, and how Republicans are making women suffering a miscarriage bleed out and, yes, even die from sepsis.
If he can drive these messages home, along with other obvious ones, they should destroy Trump/Vance. Unless JD is replaced by Deborah.
You've described in perfect prose why Walz was the correct choice. He is the most relatable politician I think I've seen in my lifetime, going back to when I worked going door to door for Mo Udall as a 16 year old in Wisconsin in 1976. It's that charm, mixed with smarts, humor, and a steadfast belief in doing good that makes me excited for this pick. Today I went and watched a presser he held during the George Floyd rioting in Minneapolis and in one of probably the most pressure packed moments any state leader could have, he showed empathy, willingness to do what needed to be done to calm people, and a determination to ensure the people responsible for murdering Floyd were brought to justice. He's the right partner to lead the ticket to victory in November.
I especially appreciate the mention that only the Republicans can fix the Republican Party. This choice does seem to be doubling down on the goal of crushing, not defeating Trump. I seiously doubt that can happen, but it is an acknowledgement of the stakes, not the odds, as the kids say. The dream that the Republican party can join the Whigs in the mist of legend, or split into 2 permanemt minority parties is wishful thinking at its most fantastic. The best possible outcome is the Republican party abandon its dream of eliminating democracy and limit itself to its traditional roles of serving plutocrats and leveraging cultural resentmemt to win elections. It can continue to alternate control of government with the Democratic party until its economic policies lead to an inevitable 2nd Depression, and hopefully go back in the wilderness for another 40 years.
Agreed. The thing with trying to appease (and stay close to) the other side *normalises* that side's convictions. You can't go too extreme, but long term this *is* a form of tug of war on 'national convictions', and you can't win the long game unless you are pulling at least as hard as the other side. I.e. you cannot correct the direction by moving the same way, only slower.
One other thing. Though I appreciate your observation that some future election will be run by a Republican, I aspire to a different long term outcome. It's not impossible that a terrible result for the GOP this year could set them on the path of the Whigs. The MAGATs are a brittle bunch, given to doubling down on stupid. It's not inconceivable that the party could fracture and some other conservative party with a different profile could arise. Not competitive nationally for two cycles or so, but destroying the GOP. EVENTUALLY, a conservative party will win an election, probably not in your lifetime, but at three score and ten, I can hope it won't be during mine. I'll vote for AOC for president and die happy.
Great article, but I'd add that Shapiro would have been a dangerous pick rather than a safe one. He's been close to too many scandals, from a sexual harassment case involving his aide, to that 20 stab-wound murder-coverup in Philadelphia. These are cases where Trump and Vance (and their campaign ad staff) can go back on the offense again.
"Elections should not be quite so existential as they are right now.": Good luck with that. They've been getting increasingly existential throughout my life - Nixon, Reagan, Dubya, and Cheetolini are all milestones along the same road. There are multiple causes, but the bitterly fought decline of white-, male-, and christianist-supremacy covers most of it. That isn't going to end any time soon. (At least, I certainly hope it doesn't, because the only way it could, practically speaking, is if the revanchists win in the big, genocidal ways they've been discussing more and more openly - "the largest deportation operation in American history" and such.)
"If Trump barely loses in 2024, his party is going to deny the results of the election.": Most of it, both the "rank and file" and the grifters who prey on them, will do that regardless of the margin. Among Republicans, epistemic closure is very much a thing. And even for the ones who know it's bullshit, it's a gratifying way of asserting that their enemies aren't Real Americans (TM), so their votes shouldn't count.
You pick Shapiro to increase your share in the Pittsburgh and Pilly suburbs from 54% to 56%. You pick Walz to increase your share in every deep red, rural county in the country from 25% to 35%. That is how you expand the competitive map to NC, FL, and even TX.
They think Shapiro was a safe pick?????? BASED ON WHAT????? I’m screaming this is so so stupid. The only safe pick is, and has always been, Walz. There is no convincing proof anywhere that Shapiro is anything other than sinking stock and no one I know in PA thinks he can deliver the state at all.
Yes has anyone come out with any evidence that Walz will not sell just fine in Pennsylvania as part of this wave of welcome aggressive nationwide momentum
but Dave, have you even considered what will happen if a video surfaces of him doing poorly in a debate with an irrelevant ex-Democrat? the campaign will disintegrate! so risky!!!
How I want to believe that the GOP can reform, but I'm looking at what the Tories did in their 14 year run and I'm skeptical. Although I like the idea of MTG being forced to go on a meditation retreat to get in touch with her authentic, grounded self. The Republican brand is just too rooted in being an asshole at this point, and their entire point is consolidation and retaining of power.
My second genie wish is for the media to quit it with the "let's return to the center" BS. Predictably, Jonathan Chait set down that click bait this morning.
Concerned about how this move will be called Anti-Semitic, but then again there's a contingency that will always be in play. I remain buoyed by the general ticket!
Right on. Walz seems to be the first candidate for P or VP who knows how to talk to real people, since Bill Clinton.
Walz doesn't want to talk about how Trump wants to kill the ACA. He says that Trump wants to get rid of protections for people with pre-existing conditions. Trump wants to bring back lifetime caps on health insurance.
I hope that he knows not to talk about "reproductive freedom" but instead about contraception, and how Republicans are making women suffering a miscarriage bleed out and, yes, even die from sepsis.
If he can drive these messages home, along with other obvious ones, they should destroy Trump/Vance. Unless JD is replaced by Deborah.
You've described in perfect prose why Walz was the correct choice. He is the most relatable politician I think I've seen in my lifetime, going back to when I worked going door to door for Mo Udall as a 16 year old in Wisconsin in 1976. It's that charm, mixed with smarts, humor, and a steadfast belief in doing good that makes me excited for this pick. Today I went and watched a presser he held during the George Floyd rioting in Minneapolis and in one of probably the most pressure packed moments any state leader could have, he showed empathy, willingness to do what needed to be done to calm people, and a determination to ensure the people responsible for murdering Floyd were brought to justice. He's the right partner to lead the ticket to victory in November.
Spot on, and your dig at Chris Cilizza is just chef's kiss
I especially appreciate the mention that only the Republicans can fix the Republican Party. This choice does seem to be doubling down on the goal of crushing, not defeating Trump. I seiously doubt that can happen, but it is an acknowledgement of the stakes, not the odds, as the kids say. The dream that the Republican party can join the Whigs in the mist of legend, or split into 2 permanemt minority parties is wishful thinking at its most fantastic. The best possible outcome is the Republican party abandon its dream of eliminating democracy and limit itself to its traditional roles of serving plutocrats and leveraging cultural resentmemt to win elections. It can continue to alternate control of government with the Democratic party until its economic policies lead to an inevitable 2nd Depression, and hopefully go back in the wilderness for another 40 years.
Great piece, Dave. As very minor side note there's a typo in your sub-heading: "if this election="of this election."
Exactly!
This quote is good:
"he manufactures aww shucks midwestern-dad energy and converts it into body blows against his opponents."
Walz has forged Minnesota over-polite passive aggressiveness into a finely honed and lethal edged tool.
Agreed. The thing with trying to appease (and stay close to) the other side *normalises* that side's convictions. You can't go too extreme, but long term this *is* a form of tug of war on 'national convictions', and you can't win the long game unless you are pulling at least as hard as the other side. I.e. you cannot correct the direction by moving the same way, only slower.
One other thing. Though I appreciate your observation that some future election will be run by a Republican, I aspire to a different long term outcome. It's not impossible that a terrible result for the GOP this year could set them on the path of the Whigs. The MAGATs are a brittle bunch, given to doubling down on stupid. It's not inconceivable that the party could fracture and some other conservative party with a different profile could arise. Not competitive nationally for two cycles or so, but destroying the GOP. EVENTUALLY, a conservative party will win an election, probably not in your lifetime, but at three score and ten, I can hope it won't be during mine. I'll vote for AOC for president and die happy.
Great article, but I'd add that Shapiro would have been a dangerous pick rather than a safe one. He's been close to too many scandals, from a sexual harassment case involving his aide, to that 20 stab-wound murder-coverup in Philadelphia. These are cases where Trump and Vance (and their campaign ad staff) can go back on the offense again.
Precisely. Shows you what these guys think of sexual harassment being an issue for voters, and the murder of a woman. 🙄🙄🙄
"Elections should not be quite so existential as they are right now.": Good luck with that. They've been getting increasingly existential throughout my life - Nixon, Reagan, Dubya, and Cheetolini are all milestones along the same road. There are multiple causes, but the bitterly fought decline of white-, male-, and christianist-supremacy covers most of it. That isn't going to end any time soon. (At least, I certainly hope it doesn't, because the only way it could, practically speaking, is if the revanchists win in the big, genocidal ways they've been discussing more and more openly - "the largest deportation operation in American history" and such.)
"If Trump barely loses in 2024, his party is going to deny the results of the election.": Most of it, both the "rank and file" and the grifters who prey on them, will do that regardless of the margin. Among Republicans, epistemic closure is very much a thing. And even for the ones who know it's bullshit, it's a gratifying way of asserting that their enemies aren't Real Americans (TM), so their votes shouldn't count.
You pick Shapiro to increase your share in the Pittsburgh and Pilly suburbs from 54% to 56%. You pick Walz to increase your share in every deep red, rural county in the country from 25% to 35%. That is how you expand the competitive map to NC, FL, and even TX.
They think Shapiro was a safe pick?????? BASED ON WHAT????? I’m screaming this is so so stupid. The only safe pick is, and has always been, Walz. There is no convincing proof anywhere that Shapiro is anything other than sinking stock and no one I know in PA thinks he can deliver the state at all.
Yes has anyone come out with any evidence that Walz will not sell just fine in Pennsylvania as part of this wave of welcome aggressive nationwide momentum
but Dave, have you even considered what will happen if a video surfaces of him doing poorly in a debate with an irrelevant ex-Democrat? the campaign will disintegrate! so risky!!!
How I want to believe that the GOP can reform, but I'm looking at what the Tories did in their 14 year run and I'm skeptical. Although I like the idea of MTG being forced to go on a meditation retreat to get in touch with her authentic, grounded self. The Republican brand is just too rooted in being an asshole at this point, and their entire point is consolidation and retaining of power.
My second genie wish is for the media to quit it with the "let's return to the center" BS. Predictably, Jonathan Chait set down that click bait this morning.
Concerned about how this move will be called Anti-Semitic, but then again there's a contingency that will always be in play. I remain buoyed by the general ticket!
Lots of his videos popping on you tube. Love his sense of humor when delivering practical messages.