It's ddifficult to get someone to remember something when their paycheck depends on them not remembering it. Altman should probably take a page from the triumph of VHS over Betamax and release ChatPORN.
Few people talk about how these massive (and thus hard to change) digital systems are adding inertia (maybe even more than innovation?). The LLMs are likely to add inertia at societal level. And massive control in the hands of a few individuals.
Really interesting read. Thanks. That hockey stick conveys in one image what I have been trying to wrap my head around. Also good to see "AI as Normal Technology" referenced again. I just used it myself in a post today. https://egghutt.substack.com/p/all-you-need-is-ai-love We're at a very interesting juncture and I think your last paragraph is spot on.
I wonder if tech bros are willingly delusional because they've staked more and more of their lives on this technology and, without it, would have to face how sad they are.
Somewhere on Bluesky somebody said that the REAL fanboys of ChatGPT were disappointed, even offended by ChatGPT5. This came from a Reddit or some chat room--apparently they really liked the cozy comforting feel they got in their conversations with ChatGPT4, but they found that GPT5 was too terse and businesslike, not nearly so encouraging or supportive.
Yeah I've seen bits about that. I kind of want to wait a month to see whether there's much real force behind the complaints, and what to make of it, if so.
Like, this could be a New Coke situation, but they could just as easily be temporarily griping and then get over it. Time will tell.
Coke was a brand and taste that had charmed people worldwide for ~70 years when New Coke was released. ChatGPT was first released about 2 1/2 years ago. Just sayin'.
All the very serious person arguments about useability, productivity, etc, the wide appeal of all these chatbots is that they give the illusion of talking like real people. And people you'd like to have conversations with, at that.
I actually used ChatGPT when I was stuck trying to summarize my book for publishers. It was very helpful in spitting out a couple of first drafts--reducing 150 pages of complex and wide-ranging argument to 200 words. It got me past a block!
But just think of what would have happened with their billlions invested if they marketed it as "Summarize THIS!" or something.
"The fundamental scientific problem has been cracked. Just add scale.": However, most actual scientists know better; for example:
"Artificial intelligence (AI) systems with human-level reasoning are unlikely to be achieved through the approach and technology that have dominated the current boom in AI, according to a survey of hundreds of people working in the field. More than three-quarters of respondents said that enlarging current AI systems - an approach that has been hugely successful in enhancing their performance over the past few years - is unlikely to lead to what is known as artificial general intelligence (AGI). An even higher proportion said that neural networks, the fundamental technology behind generative AI, alone probably cannot match or surpass human intelligence."
"And the very pursuit of these capabilities also provokes scepticism: less than one-quarter of respondents said that achieving AGI should be the core mission of the AI research community."
Ed Zitron often wrings his hands in print about the macroeconomic consequences of the bubble bursting, and he's right, it could be fairly nasty, in the manner of the turn-of-the-century dot-com crash. However, the longer the bubble goes on, the worse the bursting will be. It's in the interest of everyone but the grifters for the bubble to burst sooner rather than later. For me, frankly, it can't happen soon enough.
It's ddifficult to get someone to remember something when their paycheck depends on them not remembering it. Altman should probably take a page from the triumph of VHS over Betamax and release ChatPORN.
The start of a s-curve being mistaken for an exponential one is a key element of futurism, now and in the past.
You might like https://ea.rna.nl/2024/09/28/like-we-dont-see-air-we-dont-see-the-digital-revolution/
Few people talk about how these massive (and thus hard to change) digital systems are adding inertia (maybe even more than innovation?). The LLMs are likely to add inertia at societal level. And massive control in the hands of a few individuals.
It starts real nice. With lovely twists
Love the Apple Vision Pro analogy. The beat down that Ed Z did on the Vision Pro was epic
Really interesting read. Thanks. That hockey stick conveys in one image what I have been trying to wrap my head around. Also good to see "AI as Normal Technology" referenced again. I just used it myself in a post today. https://egghutt.substack.com/p/all-you-need-is-ai-love We're at a very interesting juncture and I think your last paragraph is spot on.
I wonder if tech bros are willingly delusional because they've staked more and more of their lives on this technology and, without it, would have to face how sad they are.
Great read!
Somewhere on Bluesky somebody said that the REAL fanboys of ChatGPT were disappointed, even offended by ChatGPT5. This came from a Reddit or some chat room--apparently they really liked the cozy comforting feel they got in their conversations with ChatGPT4, but they found that GPT5 was too terse and businesslike, not nearly so encouraging or supportive.
Yeah I've seen bits about that. I kind of want to wait a month to see whether there's much real force behind the complaints, and what to make of it, if so.
Like, this could be a New Coke situation, but they could just as easily be temporarily griping and then get over it. Time will tell.
Coke was a brand and taste that had charmed people worldwide for ~70 years when New Coke was released. ChatGPT was first released about 2 1/2 years ago. Just sayin'.
All the very serious person arguments about useability, productivity, etc, the wide appeal of all these chatbots is that they give the illusion of talking like real people. And people you'd like to have conversations with, at that.
I actually used ChatGPT when I was stuck trying to summarize my book for publishers. It was very helpful in spitting out a couple of first drafts--reducing 150 pages of complex and wide-ranging argument to 200 words. It got me past a block!
But just think of what would have happened with their billlions invested if they marketed it as "Summarize THIS!" or something.
"The fundamental scientific problem has been cracked. Just add scale.": However, most actual scientists know better; for example:
"Artificial intelligence (AI) systems with human-level reasoning are unlikely to be achieved through the approach and technology that have dominated the current boom in AI, according to a survey of hundreds of people working in the field. More than three-quarters of respondents said that enlarging current AI systems - an approach that has been hugely successful in enhancing their performance over the past few years - is unlikely to lead to what is known as artificial general intelligence (AGI). An even higher proportion said that neural networks, the fundamental technology behind generative AI, alone probably cannot match or surpass human intelligence."
(https://web.archive.org/web/20250305233251/https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-00649-4; the original is paywalled, so this link is to the Wayback Machine)
Also worth noting:
"And the very pursuit of these capabilities also provokes scepticism: less than one-quarter of respondents said that achieving AGI should be the core mission of the AI research community."
Ed Zitron often wrings his hands in print about the macroeconomic consequences of the bubble bursting, and he's right, it could be fairly nasty, in the manner of the turn-of-the-century dot-com crash. However, the longer the bubble goes on, the worse the bursting will be. It's in the interest of everyone but the grifters for the bubble to burst sooner rather than later. For me, frankly, it can't happen soon enough.
Excellent analysis 👏