I think you're just factually wrong about what happens if Biden steps aside. If he steps aside before the convention, he releases his delegates. At that point, they can nominate whomever they please--they're not pledged to Harris. He could ask them to prefer Harris, but he can't bind them. It would unquestionably be a tumultuous process but there's actually a procedure in place.
Now were Biden decide to step down after the convention or be incapacitated, I have no idea. I don't think there's any precedent to work off of. I would guess that state-by-state there are different procedures, but best guess would be that you have to vote for the ticket and that should the person at the top of the ticket be unable to serve, the electors would have to choose that ticket and the VP would be the President. That scenario is an unholy mess and yes, if he's nominated at the convention, then there's no way off this ride. But I do think there's a plausible way for someone else to get the nomination.
Fair point, I should've added a couple more paragraphs to clarify. They *can* select anyone. But, pragmatically, I just don't see any route for a non-Harris candidate to gain full intraparty support without a fight so damaging that it would be worse than the status quo.
To quote Julia Azari, we're living in a time of strong partisanship and weak parties. The party leadership isn't strong enough to manage that process without various competing camps drawing blood from one another.
Who knows, but he was one of the shrewdest politicians of his generation. But his withdrawl, along with HHH sticking up for the war his administration went all-in on, guaranteed the Shakespearian process that gave us Richard Nixon. If Biden withdraws, everybody goes after Harris just as they did Humphrey, for different reasons but the same goal, shut her down and take the prize. The media would love it, at least. I see no chance they unite around Harris until after a brutal convention at best.
What we got from Trump was just what we expected, but that is really something awful.
He did wreck the economy, fail as a leader, kill hundreds of thousands, and disgrace the presidency, and the nation.
He still bald-facedly lies about history we lived together.
The people who put Joe Biden on that stage after week of prep had to be aware of what they were doing. That’s why they did it in June: to get it over with.
While everybody’s talking what if Dems could replace Biden, we should be hammering on the fact that the Republicans need the same remedy, and they have the same opportunities. They need to figure out who their candidate should be, and it’s not Donald J Impeached Convicted Felon.
He’s not presidential, he has clearly lost more than a step since 2016, and he’s just a liar. There’s not much else to it. His campaign is to stay out of jail/prison.
That’s where a lot of chattering energy ought to go. Newsome told the truth, as did the AZ focus group on the Maddow/Hayes network.
I hate to break it to you Dave, but any Democratic candidate will have a 50/50 chance of beating Trump, except Harris would be 40/60 at best, and Whitmer only slightly better. The voters who will decide the election are essentially flipping a coin at this point, making their decision based on random psuedo-issues that matter to them, the "economy", who is "stronger". Everyone freaking out over this is doing so because of the contempt they have for those voters they do not understand at all. And yes, a "brokered convention" is guaranteed to weaken who ever grabs the tarnished brass ring. 1968 all over again. Biden's mistake was treating the "debate" as a debate, not the snake oil carnival pitch it is and our culture deserves. Anyone who could be swayed by rattling off statistics and a laundry list of programs to help Mr. Average American is already sold. All it did was legitimize Trump's Gish firehose as legitimate policy statements. We can only hope someome in Biden's staff tells him to stop pretending its 1976 and actually listen to his opponent. You don't win a mud wrestling contest with a pig.
Well put. And the commentariat I have been reading this morning is that everybody thinks Biden steps aside, and (Newsom|Whitmer|Shapira) slides in.
Uh, no, it will be Harris, and I suspect that the Trump campaign already has a Library at Alexandria inventory of oppo research on her. The Dems would not know what hit them.
Nope, we pull up our big-boy pants, and move forward.
They don't need oppo. They'll just slander her and lie. If she engages, she loses. If she ignores it, she loses. That and being a black female would be enough. She's not Hillary, but close enough.
I don't think last night was an off-night. It might look like that compared to the State of the Union, but speeches are easier. What we saw last night is what we've been seeing in Biden's interviews for a while... 60 Minutes, post-Hur report press conference, talking to reporters on Air Force One... it's hard to imagine he was just temporarily off his game in all of these. I can't see him getting better in future interviews or debates, but if he avoids them I think voters will just assume the worst.
While I can’t call this post “reassuring,” I can say it makes me feel less crazy. Watching a bunch of political folks (many of whom I respect!) go from “debates don’t impact elections, it’s kind of dumb that we’re having one in June” to “oh my god Biden needs to drop out” in <24 hours has been truly wild.
Agree with everything you’ve said. Deeply wish that people would spend less energy freaking out and more energy recruiting their friends to do remote phone banks into swing states.
Watching this from the UK, I recognise the complacency: we’ve been seeing it from the Tories in the run up to our election.
Two quick things. First, you ask: “what do you recall about mid-February political news?” I don’t know - was there a debate between the two main contenders to be president in which one looked like a zombie and burbled through incomprehensible lines? Think I’d remember if that happened then.
Second, who do you think *Donald Trump* wants to go against? Someone younger who has the Democratic Party backing and can offer a new set of ideas and will tear Trump apart? Or someone who Trump didn’t even criticise afterwards for being doddery?
Sure, it shouldn’t be Harris. But parties that want to be in power make the necessary changes. As the Tories managed to do again and again. It was when they took their eye off being in power, and focussed on appearance, that they hit the wall.
The "DEI Presidency" point is so spot on. FOX has already started with the rhetoric before the debate. I can see it being amplified like you say. Frustrating that a white male is often assumed to be there on merit while every other demographic must do extra work to justify themselves.
I think you're just factually wrong about what happens if Biden steps aside. If he steps aside before the convention, he releases his delegates. At that point, they can nominate whomever they please--they're not pledged to Harris. He could ask them to prefer Harris, but he can't bind them. It would unquestionably be a tumultuous process but there's actually a procedure in place.
Now were Biden decide to step down after the convention or be incapacitated, I have no idea. I don't think there's any precedent to work off of. I would guess that state-by-state there are different procedures, but best guess would be that you have to vote for the ticket and that should the person at the top of the ticket be unable to serve, the electors would have to choose that ticket and the VP would be the President. That scenario is an unholy mess and yes, if he's nominated at the convention, then there's no way off this ride. But I do think there's a plausible way for someone else to get the nomination.
Fair point, I should've added a couple more paragraphs to clarify. They *can* select anyone. But, pragmatically, I just don't see any route for a non-Harris candidate to gain full intraparty support without a fight so damaging that it would be worse than the status quo.
To quote Julia Azari, we're living in a time of strong partisanship and weak parties. The party leadership isn't strong enough to manage that process without various competing camps drawing blood from one another.
Ask Hubert Humphrey how that worked out for him.
I am not sure who Humphrey analogizes to here unless you think LBJ himself was in error in his assessment of his chances.
Who knows, but he was one of the shrewdest politicians of his generation. But his withdrawl, along with HHH sticking up for the war his administration went all-in on, guaranteed the Shakespearian process that gave us Richard Nixon. If Biden withdraws, everybody goes after Harris just as they did Humphrey, for different reasons but the same goal, shut her down and take the prize. The media would love it, at least. I see no chance they unite around Harris until after a brutal convention at best.
I think there’s one other thing to consider.
What we got from Trump was just what we expected, but that is really something awful.
He did wreck the economy, fail as a leader, kill hundreds of thousands, and disgrace the presidency, and the nation.
He still bald-facedly lies about history we lived together.
The people who put Joe Biden on that stage after week of prep had to be aware of what they were doing. That’s why they did it in June: to get it over with.
While everybody’s talking what if Dems could replace Biden, we should be hammering on the fact that the Republicans need the same remedy, and they have the same opportunities. They need to figure out who their candidate should be, and it’s not Donald J Impeached Convicted Felon.
He’s not presidential, he has clearly lost more than a step since 2016, and he’s just a liar. There’s not much else to it. His campaign is to stay out of jail/prison.
That’s where a lot of chattering energy ought to go. Newsome told the truth, as did the AZ focus group on the Maddow/Hayes network.
'except every branching path somehow ends with “and then an ogre devours your skull.”'
You mean, "you are likely to be eaten by a grue". And if follows that we are in a twisty maze of passages, all alike.
I hate to break it to you Dave, but any Democratic candidate will have a 50/50 chance of beating Trump, except Harris would be 40/60 at best, and Whitmer only slightly better. The voters who will decide the election are essentially flipping a coin at this point, making their decision based on random psuedo-issues that matter to them, the "economy", who is "stronger". Everyone freaking out over this is doing so because of the contempt they have for those voters they do not understand at all. And yes, a "brokered convention" is guaranteed to weaken who ever grabs the tarnished brass ring. 1968 all over again. Biden's mistake was treating the "debate" as a debate, not the snake oil carnival pitch it is and our culture deserves. Anyone who could be swayed by rattling off statistics and a laundry list of programs to help Mr. Average American is already sold. All it did was legitimize Trump's Gish firehose as legitimate policy statements. We can only hope someome in Biden's staff tells him to stop pretending its 1976 and actually listen to his opponent. You don't win a mud wrestling contest with a pig.
Well put. And the commentariat I have been reading this morning is that everybody thinks Biden steps aside, and (Newsom|Whitmer|Shapira) slides in.
Uh, no, it will be Harris, and I suspect that the Trump campaign already has a Library at Alexandria inventory of oppo research on her. The Dems would not know what hit them.
Nope, we pull up our big-boy pants, and move forward.
They don't need oppo. They'll just slander her and lie. If she engages, she loses. If she ignores it, she loses. That and being a black female would be enough. She's not Hillary, but close enough.
I don't think last night was an off-night. It might look like that compared to the State of the Union, but speeches are easier. What we saw last night is what we've been seeing in Biden's interviews for a while... 60 Minutes, post-Hur report press conference, talking to reporters on Air Force One... it's hard to imagine he was just temporarily off his game in all of these. I can't see him getting better in future interviews or debates, but if he avoids them I think voters will just assume the worst.
While I can’t call this post “reassuring,” I can say it makes me feel less crazy. Watching a bunch of political folks (many of whom I respect!) go from “debates don’t impact elections, it’s kind of dumb that we’re having one in June” to “oh my god Biden needs to drop out” in <24 hours has been truly wild.
Agree with everything you’ve said. Deeply wish that people would spend less energy freaking out and more energy recruiting their friends to do remote phone banks into swing states.
Watching this from the UK, I recognise the complacency: we’ve been seeing it from the Tories in the run up to our election.
Two quick things. First, you ask: “what do you recall about mid-February political news?” I don’t know - was there a debate between the two main contenders to be president in which one looked like a zombie and burbled through incomprehensible lines? Think I’d remember if that happened then.
Second, who do you think *Donald Trump* wants to go against? Someone younger who has the Democratic Party backing and can offer a new set of ideas and will tear Trump apart? Or someone who Trump didn’t even criticise afterwards for being doddery?
Sure, it shouldn’t be Harris. But parties that want to be in power make the necessary changes. As the Tories managed to do again and again. It was when they took their eye off being in power, and focussed on appearance, that they hit the wall.
The "DEI Presidency" point is so spot on. FOX has already started with the rhetoric before the debate. I can see it being amplified like you say. Frustrating that a white male is often assumed to be there on merit while every other demographic must do extra work to justify themselves.
This is full on 'Surely in a sane world Donald can't beat Hillary' Mk2. A disaster for the US, a global concern.