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Philip Koop's avatar

OK, so the thing about Going Infinite is that it might differ in degree from other Lewis books, but it does not differ in kind. Lewis is a very gifted story teller (and not just when writing; he is also a very entertaining speaker), but he is not a historian, he is not an economist, he is not a political analyst, he is not actually a journalist, and you should never, ever mistake him for any of those things.

The Big Short is an excellent case in point. Lewis presents Michael Burry as an "interesting, semi-obscure individual who sees something that others don’t, struggles against the perverse incentive structures of the status quo, and ultimately turns out to be ahead of the curve". The only problems are that:

1) Michael Burry was not an unusual individual.

2) He did not struggle against the perverse incentive structures of the system, but rather was a vital component of those incentive structures.

3) See 1). He was not ahead of the curve; the curve was made of Michael Burrys.

The reason we had sensational stories like immigrant strawberry pickers getting subprime mortgages was that there was not enough raw material for CDOs to meet the demand. But it wasn't practical to meet that demand with ever dodgier borrowers; instead, the solution was the "synthetic" CDO. The assets of a synthetic CDO weren't subprime mortgages, they were credit default swaps on mortgage bonds. Sound familiar? Burry was making his bets by supporting the creation of CDOs. You should know that synthetic CDOs accounted for about 2/3 of all the problem CDOs. It' the "side bet" scene in the movie, except that Burry was the side bettor, and the action on the side was twice as big as the "real" action.

Now sure, Burry didn't do anything immoral or illegal, the way SDF did. But the fact is that millions of people would have been able to keep their homes, their jobs, or their money had the likes of Burry never existed. Doesn't make for such a good story though, huh?

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Martin Belderson's avatar

Michael Lewis is apparently aware of the self-inflicted damage generated by his unwavering support of SBF and his attacks on Caroline Ellison. It looks like he's set out a reputation laundering campaign. Lewis was recently on the 'Freakonomics' podcast where Stephen Dubner did an excellent job of carrying water for him to toss on the blazing fire of his celebrity status. Didn't work. Hubris burns pretty fast.

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